'Trend' poll: Seven parties are likely to enter the next Parliament

The formula for the 51st National Assembly is 7+2. Seven political forces with a certain parliamentary representation and two with chances to pass the 4% electoral threshold. This is according to a new survey by Trend polling agency commissioned by "24 hours", dedicated to the attitudes of Bulgarians at the end of the election campaign. The survey was carried out between 16 and 22 October 2024 through a direct semi-standardised face-to-face interview with a tablet among 1,002 people aged 18+.

According to the survey, between 2 and 2.2 million Bulgarians will exercise their right to vote on Sunday.

GERB-UDF coalition led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov is forecast to be the first political force with the support of 24.9% of voters with a comfortable distance from the second. Three groups of formations stand out further down in the ranking, with similar results for individual parties and coalitions in each group. The first group is in the battle for second place, which includes “Vazrazhdane” (15.2%) and “We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria” (14.8%). The second group includes "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (7.8%), "MRF-New Beginning" (7%), "There is Such a People" (6.6%) and BSP (6.5%).

The two parties "Morality, Unity, Honour” Mech (4%) and "Velichie" (3.6%) are around or below the 4% support barrier for entering parliament. Right-wing coalition"Blue Bulgaria" remains with the support of only 1.7% of the voters.

The differences in the figures between the formations in each group is less than a percentage point, suggesting that shifts in the alignment are entirely possible.

The share of respondents indicating that they would vote with the "I do not support anyone" option is 4.3%, and this percentage is spread across all formations.

The election campaign has failed to motivate more voters to exercise their right to vote and the expected turnout is in the range between 2 million and 2 and 200 thousand people, expected to vote, Trend summarises.