Bulgaria pays a high price for low life expectancy and high death rate

Bulgaria loses 25 billion BGN a year from the demographic crisis. Since the beginning of the 1990s, the country's population has decreased by about 2.5 million people, and this has its long-term economic consequences. This is stated in a report on demographic challenges by the Council for Economic Analysis at the Council of Ministers. The analysis is to be presented to the government on Friday. From which processes is our country losing the most?

The death rate in Bulgaria continues to be among the highest in the European Union and life expectancy is the lowest. The average is 74.2 years - compared to 80.6 years for the Community. Amid worrying trends, however, one of the key demographic factors - fertility - has been going up slightly since the start of the new millennium.

Nearly 1% of GDP is ahead of the Bulgarian economy, due to global trends such as declining fertility and an ageing population, as well as country-specific factors. These changes have long-term economic implications for aggregate production, the labour market, social security and regional development

The analysis shows that demography has had a strong negative impact on GDP growth since 2009, with an average negative effect of around 0.9 percentage points (pp) per year. This represents about 45% of the average annual GDP growth rate over the period 2010-2021. The negative effect is mainly due to emigration and changes in the population structure.

In the future, without a change in economic conditions and policies, this negative effect risks to continue and even increase after 2035 due to an acceleration of population ageing.