If elections were held today, 7 political parties would secure seats in the Bulgarian Parliament

If the elections were held at the beginning of October, GERB-UDF would keep a significant lead as the first political force with 25.7% of the votes. We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria stands out more clearly ahead of "Vazrazhdane" with 16.6% versus 15.4% respectively.

This is according to an independent poll by Gallup International Balkan.

The survey was conducted between September 28 and October 6, 2024 among 806 people by face-to-face interviews with tablets.

At this stage, it remains challenging to determine who would be in second and third place, and surprising developments could still arise as the campaign progresses, the pollsters said.

It is more difficult to determine with demoscopic methods the situation in the field of the traditional electorate of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), which has split in two. MRF. The "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" is holding at 8.3%.

An upward trend is visible for "MRF - New Beginning", which entered the campaign with lower figures, but by now would have received support of 6.9%.

"BSP - United Left" would have 7.1% and "There is Such a People" would have 6.3%.

All these formations are at this point in a kind of "package", but the development of the campaign can change many things, insofar as, for example, the prominence of "MRF - New Beginning" is already visible.

“Morality, Unity, Honour” (MECh) are with good possibilities with 3.7%, and "Velichie", which at the beginning of October are at 3.2%. "Blue Bulgaria" is at 1.1%, adds Gallup.

The remaining shares are distributed among formations with declared support below one percent at this stage.

Respondents indicated a 30.5% certainty of voting for the National Assembly in the October 27 general elections, taking into account the uncertain nature of electoral lists and declarative attitudes

The provisional expectation is for about 2 million votes. 3.1% of all voters are expected to vote "I do not support anyone".