Poll predicts that GERB-UDF will have 8% lead over WCC-Democratic Bulgaria in the upcoming elections

15:32, 08.05.2024
Poll predicts that GERB-UDF will have 8% lead over WCC-Democratic Bulgaria in the upcoming elections

GERB-UDF is predicted to have 8% lead over We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) in the June 9 two-in-one elections for the National and European Parliament, according to the results of a survey by Alpha Research polling agency before the start of the election campaign. The survey was conducted between 25 April and 2 May among 1,000 Bulgarians from all over the country through a direct standardized interview. It was carried out with own funds.

According to Alpha Research, the starting positions of the parties before the elections for National Parliament show that GERB-UDF would receive 25.4% of the voters’ support. According to Alpha Research, they enter the elections with a very high mobilisation of their supporters. In second place, with a weaker position for this vote according to the pollsters, are WCC-DB with 17.5% of the votes. They are followed by the MRF with 14.9% of the vote, and Vazrazhdane with 14.6%. The BSP has 8.5% support and There is such a People has 5.2%. Below the threshold re remain "Solidarna Bulgaria", "Blue Bulgaria", "the Left", "Bulgarian Vozhod".

"We have a seemingly identical picture, but such small differences when you look at it that any change in both the turnout and the motives of people to participate can cause significant shifts in the whole picture," Genoveva Petrova of Alpha Research told BN programme "The Day Begins" on May 8.

According to the survey, the expected voter turnout for the early general elections is 40% and for the European Parliament is 35%.

The difference comes from the fact that Bulgarians in countries outside the European Union - like Turkey, the UK, the USA - will not vote in the European Parliament elections.

"The fact that the two types of elections are combined in one actually slightly mobilises turnout for the European Parliament elections. At the moment, we measure it at around 2.3 million voters. This is slightly above the voter turnout at the latest European Parliament elections five years ago when there were 2.1 million people," said Genoveva Petrova from Alpha Research.

In the European Parliament elections, GERB-UDF also leads with 25.1% of the vote, followed by WCC-DB with 18.5 percent. "Vazrazhdane" with 14.8 % is ahead of the MRF, which has 14.4% support. This is probably because of the restriction on non-EU voters. BSP is next with 8% of the vote, TISP with 4.8 %, Blue Bulgaria, Solidarna Bulgaria, Left Party and Bulgarian Rising.

Although political life in recent months has been dominated by scandals and personal accusations, for the vast majority of Bulgarian citizens these fights are outside their concerns and the issues that are important to them.

The top three issues people want to hear politicians' commitments on in the current campaign are: fight against corruption, low incomes, healthcare. Demographics, Bulgarian manufacturing and road infrastructure are the next significant topics on which voters expect specific solutions.

The beginning of the 2-in-1 election campaign, for the National and European Parliament, outlines at least three intrigues, the answers of which will be sought until the last moment:

  • Voter turnout - falling below current levels could lead to more significant changes in the results; a larger number of voters would not only increase the public legitimacy of the new MPs, but also reduce the power of the controlled vote.
  • How many political parties would be able to form a government. At present, there is little likelihood of a majority of two parliamentary groups. The more parties enter parliament, the more difficult this will become. However, the mathematical (not necessarily political) possibilities for coalition combinations will increase.
  • Will the dispersion of the left lead to the emergence of a competing left-wing political entity in Parliament, or, as with the right, will this vote remain untapped for a long time.
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