Demographic scenario: By 2090 the population of Bulgaria will be below 5 million people

On November 14, the National Statistical Institute (NSI) published an updated population forecast until 2090.

By 2090, Bulgaria's population will shrink to 4, 915,423, or below 5 million. This is according to data from the first scenario of NSI, which is defined as realistic and is in line with the European Union's regulatory requirements for the demographic and socio-economic development of the member states.

Demographic projections (population perspective projections) are calculations done under settled in advance conditions for the future development of fertility, mortality and migration. They give an idea of population development during the projected period. The projections concern the development of the population up to 2090, taking into account the number of the population, the number of live births and deaths, and the number of immigrants and emigrants. The population is distributed by sex and age for each year of the period. Three different scenarios for the population projections are used, depending on the expected social-economic development of the country. NSI said.

The forecast was developed for the period up to 2090, using data on the number of population, the number of births and deaths, the number of settled and displaced people. Three different scenarios are used for the population projections depending on the expected socio-economic development of the country.

The other two scenarios are developed under the hypotheses that demographic development will take place during favourable and, respectively, unfavourable socio-economic processes in the country.

In the first case the population of Bulgaria by 2090 will be 5,100,943 people, and in the second – 4,790,139 people.

Source: BTA

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According to the Demography statistics, the population of the country as of the end of 2022 is 6, 447, 710 persons. Compared to the previous year, it has decreased by 34, 774 persons, or by 0.5%.

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