"Trend" poll: 6 parties certain to enter the next Bulgarian Parliament

Six parties are certain to be in the next Bulgarian Parliament, according to the results of a survey by “Trend” polling agency released on June 7. GERB-UDF retains its leading position. It is still unclear which parties would be in the second, third and fourth place.

The election campaign did not bring any serious dynamics in the electoral attitudes and failed to solve the main intrigue of the upcoming elections - the battle for the second and third places. According to the poll, GERB-UDF retains its leading position with 26.5% of the support. The second place is contested by "We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria" (15.3%), "Vazrazhdane" (15.1%) and DPS (14.9%). The differences are within the margin of error and the alignment could be different. The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) retains its fifth position with 8.5% of the voters’ support, while "There is Such a People" is close to them with 5.9% of those who said they will vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Close to the electoral threshold and with a chance of parliamentary representation remains “Solidarna Bulgaria” (3.4%). “Blue Bulgaria” is predicted to receive the support of 2.1% of the voters. They are followed by VMRO (1.4%), the Left Party (1.3%) and Bulgarian Ascent (1.1%).

The option "I do not support anyone" collects 4.4%, but the result is not included in the distribution.

Voter turnout in the upcoming early parliamentary elections will not differ significantly from that of the previous general election. 48% of adult Bulgarians living in the country declare that they will exercise their right to vote. This makes an expected turnout for the parliamentary elections between 2.5 and 2.7 million people. Interest in the European Parliament elections is lower and the turnout is expected to be between 2.3 and 2.45 million.

"Trend” does not report a serious dynamic between support for parties in the parliamentary elections and those for the European Parliament. However, due to the negligible difference between the second, third and fourth, a different alignment is not ruled out for the vote for the National Assembly and the one for the European Parliament.

*The results are from a survey by “Trend” commissioned by the “Nova Broadcasting Group” and “24 Hours” on the electoral attitudes of Bulgarians before the elections for national Parliament and the European Parliament. The research was conducted between 29 May and 4 June 2024 through a direct semi-standardised face-to-face interview with a tablet among 1007 people aged 18+.