Trend survey: GERB will have a lead of over 10%, three parties in battle for the second place if elections were today

The remaining days of the election campaign will decide the battle for second, third and fourth place. Turnout will be similar to the previous parliamentary elections. This is according to an opinion poll conducted by Trend polling agency.

The turnout in the upcoming parliamentary elections is expected to be around 48% of the adult Bulgarians living in the country - roughly between 2 million and a half and 2 million and 700,000 voters are expected at the polls on 9 June. For the European elections, the declared turnout is 3% lower, according to the survey.

In the first half of the campaign no structural change in the electoral attitudes of Bulgarians was registered. GERB-UDF has a comfortable lead over the second with just over 10% among voters. GERB-UDF has the support of 26.1% of the respondents, followed by a group of three formations with almost similar results – We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (15.4%), Movement for Rights and Freedoms (14.9%) and Vazrazhdane (14.8%). In the course of the remaining campaign, the arrangement for the second, third and fourth place will be decided. The Bulgarian Socialist Party retains fifth position with 8.5% of the vote, followed by "There is Such a People" with 5.5%.

"Solidarna Bulgaria" (2.4%), "Blue Bulgaria" (1.8%), "Left" (1.4%), "Bulgarian Rise" (1.2%) and VMRO (1.1%) remain below the threshold for parliamentary representation.

The option "I do not support anyone" collects a little over 5%, but the result is not included in the distribution.

There is no serious difference in the preferences of Bulgarians between the national and European elections. A slightly stronger result in the European elections is expected for WCC-DB coalition (16.1%) and Vazrazhdane (15.1%). For the BSP, the result for the European list will be weaker compared to the national vote.

Trend makes the clarification that due to the small differences in the percentages of the second, third and fourth in the ranking and due to the possibility of voting in the parliamentary elections in countries outside the European Union, the ranking of the formations in the parliamentary and European elections may be different.

The data are from a survey conducted by Trend Agency commissioned by 24 Chassa daily. The survey was conducted between May 11 and 18 through face-to-face interviews among 1,003 adults.